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  • The Next Big Theme: November 2024

    Nov 18, 2024

    View all Ido Caspi's ArticlesIdo CaspiIdo Caspi


    Artificial Intelligence


    Custom AI Chip Production Continues to Gather Momentum

    OpenAI is collaborating with Broadcom and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) to develop its first ever proprietary chip, aiming to support its AI systems and diversify its hardware supply chain.1 This initiative reflects a strategic shift from its earlier, more ambitious plan to establish a network of foundries, which was deemed impractical due to high costs and extended timelines. By designing proprietary chips, OpenAI seeks to reduce reliance on external suppliers like Nvidia, whose GPUs currently dominate the AI hardware market. Specifically, OpenAI will use Broadcom to build inference chips, which are expected to experience greater demand than training chips in the years ahead as AI applications are deployed.2 Broadcom is already a key AI chip supplier to companies like Alphabet and Meta, and OpenAI’s move aligns with other tech giants, such as Amazon and Microsoft, which have pursued custom chip development to enhance performance and control costs. The manufacturing collaboration with TSMC highlights how AI players are increasingly leveraging partnerships and a mix of internal and external approaches to secure necessary compute supply, broadening out the AI ecosystem.


    Defense Technology


    Industry Heavyweights Partner to Enhance European Tank Production

    Leonardo and Rheinmetall, two leading European defense technology suppliers, are forming a 50:50 joint venture to establish a major presence in European tank production. The venture’s main objective is to support Italy's armed forces by developing the next-generation Italian Main Battle tank (MBT) and the Lynx platform for the Armored Infantry Combat System (AICS), both key elements of Italy’s land systems modernization program.3 The Panther KF51 developed by Rheinmetall will be the basis for the new main battle tank to replace the Ariete in the Italian army. The Italian AICS program involves the procurement of over 1,000 armored combat systems in 16 variants in the future. In addition to the classic infantry fighting vehicle, there will be anti-aircraft (Skyranger), reconnaissance and anti-tank versions.4 Plans also include producing related vehicles, such as recovery, engineering, and bridge-laying units. The companies anticipate significant international demand for these advanced combat systems, offering broad sales potential in markets focused on modernizing their military assets.5


    Healthcare Innovation


    Drug Makers Are Racing to Find the Next GLP-1 Breakthrough

    In the coming months, data will be released for several new drugs entering the lucrative weight loss therapy market, positioning them as potential competitors to Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly’s popular obesity treatments. Amgen is set to report Phase 2 data for its GLP-1 drug MariTide by year end.6 This treatment targets the same two gut hormones, GLP-1 and GIP, as current drugs, but it requires only a monthly injection, in contrast to the weekly shots needed with Wegovy and Zepbound.7 If successful, MariTide could progress to Phase 3 trials and potentially receive approval by 2027, with sales projected to reach $4.2 billion by 2030.8 Novo Nordisk will also release Phase 3 data for its obesity candidate, CagriSema, a combination of the GLP-1 drug semaglutide, used in Ozempic and Wegovy, and cagrilintide, which activates amylin and calcitonin receptors. Approval could come as early as 2025, with sales projected to reach $21.0 billion by 2030.9


    Lithium & Battery Technology


    Mining Giant Expands Lithium Dominance

    Major miner Rio Tinto announced its intended acquisition of U.S. lithium producer Arcadium Lithium for $5.85 per share, or a deal totaling $6.7 billion. Arcadium Lithium, which was formed in early 2024 as the result of a merger between Livent and Allkem, is a vertically integrated lithium chemicals producer with capabilities in lithium chemicals manufacturing and extraction processes. Arcadium’s current annual lithium production capacity across a range of products including lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate is 75,000 tonnes lithium carbonate equivalent, with expansion plans in place to more than double capacity by the end of 2028.10 Should the deal finalize, Rio Tinto could become the third-largest lithium producer globally, behind Albermale and SQM.11 The move comes as mining companies look to secure essential minerals for the ongoing global energy transition, and as lithium prices have come under pressure due to Chinese oversupply.


    Data Centers & Digital Infrastructure


    Data Center Buildouts Show No Signs of Slowing Among Big Tech

    The ongoing AI boom continues to drive a surge in data center construction, particularly among major cloud providers. Amazon recently purchased a 220-acre site in Phoenix, Arizona, for $277 million to build a new data center campus. Just east of this site, Amazon is already constructing four other data centers, each covering 227,000 square feet.12 Additionally, Amazon filed for a 3.8-million-square-foot data center campus in Louisa County, Virginia, aiming to expand its substantial footprint in Northern Virginia.13 Microsoft announced a $1 billion investment to develop three data center campuses in Ohio, including $420 million allocated to a 245,000-square-foot campus in New Albany. The New Albany City Council approved a 15-year tax abatement for Microsoft, with construction scheduled to begin in July 2025 and completion expected by late 2027.14 Meanwhile, Google is considering a $600 million expansion of its data center in the Charlotte area, supported by recently approved tax incentives.15


    Autonomous & Electric Vehicles


    Electric Vehicles Progress Towards Autonomous Futures

    Tesla unveiled its robotaxi, the Cybercab, along with a robovan that could fit up to 20 people or be used for commercial purposes.16 The Cybercab is designed to be fully autonomous with no wheels or pedals and will charge via wireless induction technology, highlighting Tesla’s ongoing advancements towards unsupervised full self-driving (FSD) models. Tesla expects the Cybercab to hit the market before 2027 with a price tag of less than $30,000. Also, Tesla aims to implement unsupervised FSD capabilities in the Model 3 and Model Y EVs within the next year.17 It’s expected that Tesla’s existing vehicle fleet will be available on the company's rideshare service once the EVs are combined with FSD and Tesla’s upcoming rideshare mobility app, which could potentially unlock significant value for the industry.


    THE NUMBERS


    The following charts examine returns and sales growth expectations by theme, based on their corresponding ETFs or indices.












    KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST RESEARCH FROM GLOBAL X


    To learn more about the disruptive themes changing our world, read the latest research from Global X, including:

    • Drones in Defense: Reshaping Modern Warfare and its Economics

    • Introducing IPAV: The Case for International Infrastructure Development

    • Inflection Points: The Next Revolution: From the Information to the Automation Age

    • Uranium Update: When Public Policy and Private-Sector Demand Align

    • Small Caps Are Positioned to Benefit From Falling Rates


    ETF HOLDINGS AND PERFORMANCE


    To see individual ETF holdings and current performance across the Global X Thematic Suite, including information on the indexes shown, click these links:

    • Disruptive Technology: Artificial Intelligence & Technology ETF (AIQ), Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF (BOTZ), Cybersecurity ETF (BUG), Cloud Computing ETF (CLOU), Autonomous & Electric Vehicles ETF (DRIV), FinTech ETF (FINX), Video Games & Esports ETF (HERO), Lithium and Battery Tech ETF (LIT), Internet of Things ETF (SNSR), Social Media ETF (SOCL), Data Center & Digital Infrastructure ETF (DTCR), Blockchain ETF (BKCH), PropTech ETF (PTEC), Defense Tech ETF (SHLD)

    • Consumer Economy: Millennial Consumer ETF (MILN), E-Commerce ETF (EBIZ), Genomics & Biotechnology ETF (GNOM), Aging Population ETF (AGNG), Telemedicine & Digital Health ETF (EDOC)

    • Infrastructure & Environment: U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF (PAVE), CleanTech ETF (CTEC), Renewable Energy Producers (RNRG), Clean Water ETF (AQWA), Hydrogen ETF (HYDR), Solar ETF (RAYS), Wind Energy ETF (WNDY), AgTech & Food Innovation ETF (KROP), Infrastructure Development ex-U.S. ETF (IPAV)

    • Digital Assets: Blockchain & Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITS), Bitcoin Trend Strategy ETF (BTRN)

    • Multi-Theme: Thematic Growth ETF (GXTG)


    Appendix: Thematic Expected Sales Growth Graph Indices


    AgTech & Food Innovation: Solactive AgTech & Food Innovation Index

    Aging Population: Indxx Aging Population Thematic Index

    Artificial Intelligence & Technology: Indxx Artificial Intelligence & Big Data Index

    Autonomous & Electric Vehicles: Solactive Autonomous & Electric Vehicles Index

    Blockchain: Solactive Blockchain Index

    Clean Water: Solactive Global Clean Water Industry Index

    CleanTech: Indxx Global CleanTech Index

    Cloud Computing: Indxx Global Cloud Computing Index

    Cybersecurity: Indxx Cybersecurity Index

    Data Center & Digital Infrastructure: Solactive Data Center REITs & Digital Infrastructure Index

    Defense Tech: Global X Defense Tech Index

    E-Commerce: Solactive E-commerce Index

    FinTech: Indxx Global FinTech Thematic Index

    Genomics: Solactive Genomics Index

    Hydrogen: Solactive Global Hydrogen Index

    Infrastructure Development ex-U.S.: Global X Infrastructure Development Ex-U.S. Index

    Internet Of Things: Indxx Global Internet of Things Thematic Index

    Lithium & Battery Technology: Solactive Global Lithium Index

    Millennial Consumer: Indxx Millennials Thematic Index

    PropTech: Global X PropTech Index

    Renewable Energy Producers: Indxx Renewable Energy Producers Index

    Robotics & Artificial Intelligence: Indxx Global Robotics & Artificial Intelligence Thematic Index

    Social Media: Solactive Social Media Total Return Index

    Solar: Solactive Solar Index

    Telemedicine & Digital Health: Solactive Telemedicine & Digital Health Index

    U.S. Infrastructure: Indxx U.S. Infrastructure Development Index

    Video Games & Esports: Solactive Video Games & Esports Index

    Wind Energy: Solactive Wind Energy Index
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    Category:Thematic Growth
    Topics:
    Artificial Intelligence,
    Defense Tech,
    Health Care,
    Lithium,
    Batteries,
    Data Centers,
    Electric Vehicles

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