A Decade of Change: How Tech Evolved in the Last Five Years and Bold Bets for the Next Five

Technology has reshaped daily life at a pace that is no longer subtle. Just five years ago, AI was quietly powering recommendation engines and social-media feeds. Today, it is designing graphics, writing code, generating content, and beginning to reshape entire workflows. The physical world is evolving just as rapidly. Space rockets now land on floating platforms, humanoids assist in warehouses, and AI data centers — rapidly expanding their footprint worldwide — could consume more electricity than all of Japan by 2030.¹

We outlined our expectations for the 2020s in the first iteration of this report five years ago. Since then, several inflection points, most notably the pandemic and the rise of frontier AI systems like ChatGPT, have dramatically accelerated the adoption of key technologies. What we once projected for the full decade has materialized in just a few years.

And these aren’t isolated breakthroughs. They reflect the convergence of multiple maturing technological platforms, in ways that amplify their economic impact. As this flywheel of innovation accelerates, companies are being forced to rethink capital spending, retrain workers, and restructure business models, multiplying disruption and creating new opportunity sets for investors. The next phase of transformation is already unfolding, and could bring deeper, faster, and more structural shifts than the last.

Against that backdrop, we reexamine our outlook for the remainder of the 2020s with this mid-decade update. We highlight technologies advancing faster than expected and introduce breakthrough innovations that weren’t even on the radar five years ago. In this piece, we pinpoint the strongest innovations shaping this decade and surface the bold bets that may define its second half.

Key Takeaways

• Technology has become a deeper part of our lives in recent years, as new products and services bring greater convenience, value, and functionality.
• The convergence of paradigm shifts and the emergence of new technologies and platforms are expected to accelerate innovation in the next five years.
• This piece builds upon the A Decade of Change insights piece published five years ago and explores emerging opportunities that investors can consider to help insulate portfolios from structural disruption.

2020 to 2025: What Changed?

1. AI Had Its ‘Google’ Moment

The AI landscape changed dramatically in late 2022 with the debut of ChatGPT, giving everyday users hands-on access to cutting-edge artificial intelligence for the first time. In just five days, the platform hit one million users, marking the fastest growth ever witnessed by a tech product and setting off an industry-wide race to integrate generative AI into every layer of the tech stack.² Hundreds of billions of dollars have poured into AI infrastructure so far to make that a reality.³ Meanwhile, AI is fast becoming an everyday assistant for coding, writing, customer service, marketing, ads, and more. In many ways, it’s starting to feel as essential today as the browser or smartphone do.

• Base Technology: Large Language Models
• Enabling Technology: GPUs, Cloud Computing, Data Centers  
• Key Stat: Nearly a billion people are estimated to use ChatGPT every single week, a product that didn’t exist three years ago.⁴

2. CPUs Slowed, GPUs Took the Lead

For decades, computing progress followed Moore’s Law, doubling transistor density every two years.⁵ Physical limits, however, have slowed CPU gains. GPUs and AI accelerators stepped in to fill that gap. They’re designed to handle many computing tasks at once, making them ideal for the heavy data processing that AI models need. Instead of relying only on traditional chips from companies like Intel, data centers are now shifting toward GPUs and AI accelerators, such as those provided by Nvidia or AMD, as demand for AI workloads grows exponentially.⁶ ChatGPT reinforced that turning point, kicking off a global arms race for GPUs, freeing up capital, and bringing generational demand, compelling leaders like Nvidia to quickly ramp up development of even faster chips, driving a permanent shift in how computing power is built and deployed.

• Base Technology: GPUs
• Industries that Benefited: Semiconductors, Data Centers, Power
• Key Stat: Nvidia’s data center revenue grew seventeen times from FY2021 to FY2025.⁷

3. Shopping, Spending, and Entertainment Became Digital-First  

The pandemic compressed a decade of e-commerce growth into just a few quarters, fundamentally rewiring shopping behaviors. Social commerce, live-streaming, AI recommendations, and expedited delivery have permanently reshaped consumer expectations. Meanwhile, last-mile logistics improvements expanded digital shopping into product categories like food and groceries, helping global e-commerce sales get on track to surpass $6.4 trillion in 2025, with the U.S. alone approaching $1.3 trillion.⁸ Digital wallets and buy-now-pay-later services cemented this shift by adding convenience and flexibility.

Similarly, in entertainment and media, streaming became the default channel. Streaming accounted for 38% of U.S. TV viewing in 2024, up from 19% in 2019, overtaking both cable and broadcast.⁹ Meanwhile, short-form videos, pioneered by TikTok and Meta, have trained a new generation to consume content in bite-sized bursts, permanently altering media consumption patterns.

• Base Technology: Smartphones, 5G
• Industries Transformed: Retail, Advertising, Payments and Banking, Last Mile Delivery
• Key Stat: E-commerce penetration in the U.S. approached 23% in 2024, nearly double from five years ago.¹⁰

4. Mobile Networks Upgraded to 5G

The shift from 4G LTE to 5G marked a leap in wireless infrastructure, offering speeds up to 100x faster, ultra-low latency, and the ability to connect millions of devices per square mile. But its real impact went far beyond faster downloads, as 5G laid the foundation for the real-time connectivity needed for novel applications such as autonomous vehicles, remote surgery, immersive AR/VR, and smart factories. The network upgrade required a multi-year rollout of equipment, towers, and fiber connectivity that will yield dividends over decades.

• Base Technology: 5G
• Enabling Themes: Digital Economy, Mobile Apps, Internet of Things
• Key Stat: 2.25 billion devices are estimated to run on 5G networks currently.¹¹

5. Cybersecurity Became a Boardroom Priority

A sharp rise in ransomware attacks, supply chain breaches, and geopolitical cyber threats pushed cybersecurity from merely an IT concern to a top strategic risk for enterprises and nation states. Incidents like the SolarWinds breach and Colonial Pipeline attack exposed the vulnerability of critical infrastructure and spurred regulatory responses across the U.S., Europe, and Asia. Global cybersecurity spending surged past $200 billion annually, with companies rapidly acquiring solutions in key categories such as data security, endpoint protection, and cloud security upgrades.¹² The growing adoption of AI further complicates the landscape, with the technology increasing threats while also bolstering defenses.

• Base Technology: Cybersecurity
• Industries that Benefited: Cloud Computing
• Key Stat: Neary $10 trillion will be lost to cybercrime around the world in 2025.¹³

6. Electric Vehicles Went Mainstream

Over 17 million electric vehicles (EVs) were sold in 2024, with markets like China, Europe, and the United States leading the charge.¹⁴ Adoption was driven by a convergence of forces: falling battery prices that made EVs more cost-competitive; an expanded variety of models, which gave consumers more choice across segments; and significant improvements in charging infrastructure. Government incentives and emissions mandates further accelerated the shift. Legacy automakers like GM, Ford, Toyota, and VW committed tens of billions of dollars to EV development, marking a clear industry pivot.¹⁵ What was once a niche market is now a mass-market movement increasingly central to the future of mobility.

• Base Technology: Electric Vehicles
• Enabling Technology: Battery Technology, Autonomy
• Key Stat: EVs accounted for 21% of global new car sales in 2024, up from just 4% in 2020.¹⁶

7. Internet of Things Digitized the Physical World

Over the past five years, the Internet of Things (IoT) moved from concept to baseline infrastructure. Billions of sensors, cameras, and edge devices were embedded across factories, homes, vehicles, and cities, bringing real-time data collection to the physical world. From smart thermostats and connected cars to industrial machines with predictive maintenance, the world became measurable, monitorable, and programmable. This mass instrumentation of the physical world is now feeding AI systems, enabling automation, while also increasing the need for cybersecurity. Similarly, personal wearables evolved beyond just health monitoring into autonomous closed-loop systems that can diagnose and administer medication without the need for patient or doctor intervention, expanding the reach and application of HealthTech solutions.

• Base Technology: Sensors, 5G
• Industries that Benefited: Manufacturing, Transportation, Healthcare, Consumer Electronics
• Key Stat: Over 1.1 billion wearable devices are in use globally in 2025, more than double the number from 2020.¹⁷

2025 to 2030: What We Expect in the Next Five Years

1. Technology Powers a U.S. Manufacturing Revival

For years, global supply chains chased cost savings, fueling a globalization boom. Trade jumped from 39% to 61% of world GDP between 1990 and 2008.¹⁸ But that era is rapidly unraveling. COVID, U.S.-China tensions, and the Ukraine war exposed the fragility of deeply integrated global systems, pushing corporations and nations to rethink their reliance on the globalized model.

A new post-globalization playbook is taking shape, centered on reshoring and regional ties. Countries are doubling down on domestic manufacturing, critical tech, and supply chain security. The 2025 trade war, sparked by U.S. tariffs and global pushback, only adds fuel. Expect trillions of dollars in capital investments to flow into rebuilding supply chains closer to home this decade, alongside a rewiring of the security and defense apparatus.

• More Research: Three Themes Driving America’s Manufacturing Revival
• Base Technology: Robotics, Artificial Intelligence
• Enabling Themes: Infrastructure Development, Electrification, Defense Tech, Internet of Things

2. Humanoids Join the Workforce 

What cars did for personal transportation, humanoid robots could do for physical work. Their adoption curve is being accelerated by recent breakthroughs in AI and computing hardware. These robots won’t necessarily replace workers, but work alongside them, offloading tedious and labor-intensive tasks. Robots will also be capable of working 24/7, adjusting to shifting environments, and continuously improving through data. Well-funded leaders like Tesla, and upstarts like Agility Robotics and Figure AI, are all racing to launch versatile humanoid robots by 2026, with early testing already delivering impressive results in industries like logistics.¹⁹ With the U.S. labor market expected to face a shortfall of nearly 2 million manufacturing workers by 2033, the technology could fast become a necessity.²⁰ We expect mass adoption to further be catalyzed as hardware and AI computing costs continue to drop.

• More Research: The Rise of Humanoids, Explained
• Base Technology: Robotics, Artificial Intelligence
• Enabling Themes: Internet of Things, Data Centers, Autonomous Vehicles, Electrification

3. AI Agents Transform Software

AI’s significance is likely to be on par with electricity in the industrial era or the internet in the digital age. As productivity benefits become evident, adoption is beginning to accelerate. Over 71% of U.S. companies are already experimenting with generative AI and the ecosystem is quickly commercializing.²¹ OpenAI alone is projected to reach $13 billion in revenue by 2025 and $175 billion by 2030.²² However, the real value is likely to come from the proliferation of AI Agents, systems that can understand end-to-end workflows and fully automate repetitive tasks from start to finish, transforming knowledge-work permanently. These agents have the potential to disrupt traditional software by replacing or streamlining the many layers of applications and tools used today, fueling a productivity boom. By 2030, AI could add up to $15.7 trillion to the global economy, roughly 13% of global GDP.²³

• More Research: How Agentic AI Could Catalyze Cloud Computing
• Base Technology: Generative AI
• Enabling Themes: Data Centers, Cloud Computing, Data Management, Cybersecurity

4. Power Bottlenecks AI 

Data centers, once designed for web hosting and cloud storage, are being rapidly overhauled to handle AI workloads that demand far more power. In 2017, only a fraction of global data center servers were installed for AI.²⁴ By 2030, that share is projected to exceed 20%, a shift that carries steep energy costs.²⁵ Unlike conventional servers, AI clusters run massive arrays of GPUs around the clock, requiring advanced cooling systems and consuming significantly more electricity. As AI deployment scales and chip constraints ease, energy may become the biggest bottleneck. By decade’s end, AI data centers could consume double the amount of electricity than they do today, putting them on par with entire nations.²⁶ In the U.S., nearly 10% of all electricity could go to data centers.²⁷ That makes access to cheap, reliable power a strategic asset. Nations with abundant energy resources will have a structural advantage in building out AI infrastructure and shaping the future of the technology itself.

• More Research: AI Hinges on Rapid Electrification
• Base Technology: AI Semiconductors
• Enabling Themes: Electrification, Uranium and Nuclear Power, Data Center Cooling

5. Quantum Computers Become Usable

Quantum computing is advancing faster than many expected. In late 2024, Google unveiled its Willow quantum chip, followed closely by Microsoft's announcement of Majorana 1, both marking major breakthroughs on the path to stable, practical quantum systems. While today's quantum machines still operate mostly in tightly controlled lab settings, needing extremely cold temperatures and still being sensitive to interference, these challenges could be addressed in the next few years.

Quantum computing could solve complex problems far beyond traditional computers' capabilities. The first wave of commercial applications will likely come through tech giants like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon, delivering quantum computing via the cloud, unlocking powerful new tools for simulations, optimization problems, security enhancements, and materials research that were previously impossible to tackle.

• Base Technology: Quantum Computing
• Enabling Themes: High Performance Computing, Data Centers

6. AI and Genomics Bring the Next Big Leap in Healthcare

The proliferation of artificial intelligence has the potential to disrupt nearly every industry, with healthcare particularly well positioned to benefit as its complex regulatory environment and growing labor shortage intensify. By leveraging vast amounts of genomic data, AI has opened new frontiers in drug discovery, dramatically shrinking development timelines once measured in decades. Through its ability to run millions of scenarios, AI can reduce preclinical drug development costs by 20-40% while accelerating the design and validation of drug candidates by as much as 15x.^28,29 The technology's impact is already evident in clinical trials, where drugs discovered using AI have demonstrated Phase 1 success rates of 80-90%, substantially outperforming the historical industry average of 40-65%.³⁰ As better models emerge alongside faster processing hardware and supportive regulatory frameworks, we anticipate a rapid acceleration in drug development processes throughout this decade.

• More Research: AI Applications in Healthcare: From Drug Discovery to Patient Care
• Base Technology: Artificial Intelligence, Genomics
• Enabling Themes: Drug Discovery, GPUs, Cloud Computing

7. Drones Redefine Frontlines

Drones have emerged from support roles to center stage in modern conflict. In Ukraine, tactical drones such as low-cost quadcopters and long-range unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) have demonstrated their strategic impact on the global stage for the first time, disrupting armored advances, surveilling enemy positions in real time, and executing precision strikes at a fraction of traditional costs.³¹ By 2030, the global military drone market could increase two-fold to over $40 billion, fueled by continued demand for drone swarms and autonomous targeting.³² Declining prices are also expanding usage, and AI integration into drone technology is advancing rapidly, with real-time object detection and autonomous decision loops becoming viable on the battlefield. By 2030, drones could dominate strike missions, shifting the balance of power toward nation states and non-state actors that can produce and deploy them at scale.

• More Research: Drones in Defense: Reshaping Modern Warfare and its Economics
• Base Technology: Drone Technology
• Enabling Themes: Autonomous Vehicles, Robotics, Internet of Things, Cybersecurity 

8. Robotaxis Achieve Critical Mass

The ride-hailing and personal mobility landscape has shifted quickly in just five years. Robotaxis are now outperforming human drivers in error rates, with early markets seeing strong adoption volumes and promising unit economics.³³ Waymo is already operating in three cities across the U.S., conducting 250,000 paid trips weekly in 2025, starting from zero in 2020.³⁴ Meanwhile, Tesla launched its Robotaxi service in 2025, starting with markets like Austin, Texas.³⁵ By 2030, the U.S. could have 500,000 active autonomous taxis, making up 30% of the current taxi fleet nationwide.³⁶ Meanwhile, long-haul trucking in the U.S. faces a driver shortage of 160,000 by 2030, opening the door for autonomous companies like Aurora and Kodiak to take over U.S. highways. Last-mile logistics is also poised for a revolution, with robots and drones changing delivery dynamics and driving down costs.

• More Research: Mobility: Driving the Next Era of Transportation
• Base Technology: Autonomous Vehicles
• Enabling Themes: Electric Vehicles, Robotics, Internet of Things  

9. Space Economy Takes Off

The commercialization of space has entered a new phase over the past five years, with reusable launch vehicles, lower satellite deployment costs, and rising demand for orbital infrastructure unlocking new markets. By 2030, the number of active satellites in orbit could exceed 100,000, supporting everything from broadband internet and Earth observation to in-orbit servicing and space-based manufacturing.³⁷ SpaceX now conducts over 130 launches annually, with Starlink surpassing 3 million global users.³⁸ Over 7,000 Starlink satellites operate in orbit, more than all other active satellites combined just five years ago.³⁹ Meanwhile, NASA and private players like Blue Origin and Axiom Space are accelerating plans for lunar missions and private space stations, with the first commercial habitats expected to host rotating crews by 2028.⁴⁰

• Base Technology: Space Technology
• Enabling Themes: Satellite Technology, Robotics, Defense Technology
• Key Stat: The global space economy, valued at $550 billion today, could surpass $1.3 trillion by 2030, driven by satellite data, launch services, and space infrastructure.⁴¹

Conclusion: Innovation Continues to Drive Investment  

The last five years marked a pivotal acceleration in transformative technologies. What were once frontier ideas, such as AI assistants, reusable rockets, autonomous vehicles, and quantum chips, are now actively finding their way into the global economic engine, disrupting sectors, transforming business models, and reshaping consumer behaviors. For investors, staying ahead is going to require not just understanding of disruption, but challenging prior assumptions about feasibility, speed, and the limits of technological impact.