
Energy & MLP Insights: Market Implications of a Third Gulf War
Kenny Zhu
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U.S. EIA (2026, January 13). Short-Term Energy Outlook.
MarketWatch (2026, January 30). Exxon, Chevron are producing record amounts of oil, but lower prices led to lower earnings.
Axios (2026, January 4). U.S. oil companies will rebuild Venezuela’s industry, Trump says.
The Global X Research Team is pleased to announce the release of its MLP Quarterly Report, featuring key insights and opportunities in the midstream sector. The key takeaways below, as well as the charts included within this report, recap some of the key developments that impacted the midstream oil & gas sector over the past quarter. Click here to view or download the MLP report.
Crude oil prices were largely lower for the 2nd half of 2025, as rising crude oil production clashed with geopolitical volatility in Russia and Venezuela.1 Major U.S. oil companies like Exxon Mobil and Chevron managed to raise production volumes to record levels to partially offset the negative price effect of lower prices. Both firms announced that their oil & gas production hit historic levels at their 4th quarter earnings calls, with Chevron's output rising nearly 20.7% year-over-year, and Exxon noting the highest annual production volume recorded in over 40 years.2 The increased output largely benefited midstream performance thru end of year 2025.
Geopolitical risk premiums jumped following the surprise capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro by U.S. forces. However, markets wrestled with countervailing narratives from the U.S. administration, which outlined its intent to have U.S. oil companies develop Venezuelan energy infrastructure; meanwhile, U.S. oil companies indicated a general unwillingness to invest in the South American nation, citing persistent security, economic, and political concerns. 3
2025 MLP performance was boosted by strong energy production volumes and rising shareholder distributions. Despite the persistent volatility and fears of oversupply that led crude oil prices to fall nearly 20% over full-year 2025, midstream MLPs fared relatively well. The fund's performance was enhanced by elevated distribution rates among MLPs as well as strong oil throughputs, which reached 13,827,000 barrels near the end of December 2025.
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The War in Iran could impair energy output and thus reshape supply chains. It also highlights the growing importance of North American energy infrastructure.
The War in Iran could impair energy output and thus reshape supply chains. It also highlights the growing importance of North American energy infrastructure.
The midstream sector could benefit from a number of tailwinds, including rising demand for electricity and liquified natural gas exports.
Global X Research
Kenny Zhu