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A cautious tone has been set by some of the few banks that have reported. Some banks are building credit reserves, while others are releasing their reserves. The common theme thus far has been that most companies, that have reported, are seeing signs of cooling demand for big ticket items. Yet demand is still high in the service sector as many parts of the world reengages.
Let’s go negative first, M&A activity is declining, a cooling of demand for big ticket items including homes and autos have been hit by higher rates. Not surprisingly some commodities including the price of lumber declined meaningfully in March. Trucking rates have also declined signaling a shift from goods to services.
For the positive, the service sector is benefiting from the road not traveled during the pandemic. Small-caps may be a beneficiary as that segment is heavy services.
The next few weeks may provide much color and information on how companies are navigating tricky and sometimes expensive supply chains, inflation, and how Fed policy will likely impact demand.
Please refer to our 2022 Outlook for more details on these expectations.
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